Following Tesla’s Q3 2024 results discussion, attention returned to Musk’s promise of a hardware upgrade if HW3 proved unable to support unsupervised FSD. The commitment was conditional; it was not an announcement that every HW3 car would immediately receive HW4. It also mattered which customers had purchased FSD. The need for a clearer explanation had already been discussed in this article.

From HW3 to newer hardware

Tesla’s 2016 statement about hardware intended for full self-driving came before HW3’s introduction. By 2023, newer cars were beginning to receive HW4, with greater processing capability. In the 2024 discussion, Tesla had not declared that every HW3 vehicle needed replacement hardware. Reports considered a more targeted computing upgrade if necessary, potentially retaining existing cameras and wiring. A hybrid solution sometimes called “HW3.5” was speculation, not an official product name or a confirmed design.

What might an upgrade involve?

The main possibility discussed was a replacement FSD computer with more effective processing within the older vehicle’s physical, electrical and thermal limits. Better chips could in principle offer more performance without replacing every component of the original system. Questions also remained about redundancy and how a future design would check its own decisions. None of those engineering possibilities established a completed retrofit or guaranteed the safety and capability of an unannounced system.

No timetable had been announced

At publication, Musk had not given a schedule for an HW3 retrofit. Tesla’s stated approach was to continue developing the software and replace computing hardware if required for the intended capabilities, rather than launch an unnecessary intermediate upgrade. For an owner, that was a commitment to follow, not a reason to assume a delivery date, an installation appointment or universal eligibility. The FSD software available at the time remained supervised. Later developments need to be considered separately from this archived account of the 2024 discussion.

Teslhub illustration: the conditional HW3 upgrade commitment discussed in 2024

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Giorgio Rebecchi
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